CHAIN OF EVENTS IN LEBANON
Dimpool Analysis Team
Basic Pattern Analysis
29 March 2011
March 1, 2009
A special Tribunal called as The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) -constituted to find and prosecute people who are responsible for the attack on Februrary 14, 2005 resulting in the death of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri – is officially started.
July 22, 2010
Hezbollah’s secretary-general Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah gave a press conference and stated that Prime Minister Saad Hariri informed him that the STL would soon issue indictments against members of Hizbullah for the murder of former Premier Rafiq Hariri.
January 12, 2011
Lebanese government collapsed after Hezbollah and its allies resigned from the Cabinet because of the disputes over the upcoming indictments of the STL.
January 17, 2011
The Prosecutor of the STL, Daniel Bellemare has submitted an indictment and supporting materials to the Pre-Trial Judge.
January 25, 2011
January 25, 2011
Supporters of Saad Hariri, staged demonstrations in protest against Hezbollah’s nomination of a candidate for the post of prime minister.
After Hezbollah has announced that its ministers and allies will resign unless the Prime Minister calls an urgent Cabinet meeting over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) investigation and to denounce UN indictments, as the first indictment indicates a connection with Rafiq Hariri’s murder and several Hezbollah members.
Saad Hariri, refused to bow to Hezbollah’s demands and scheduled a meeting with the US President, Barack Obama in Washington to discuss the crisis.
Future policy scenarios
Hezbollah and its allies reached the majority in the Assembly by having the support of 65 deputies, that means they can form a government without the support of March 14 alliance. Hezbollah does not deny its violent goals against Israel. Heazbollah leader, Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah has stated that his forces would invade Israel’s northern Galilee region if a new Middle East war erupts.
If pro-Western protests against Hezbollah arms fail to succeed, there is a high probability that Hezbollah would take control over the majority of Lebanon and with support of Iran and Syria, it can easily instigate Shia public against Israel.